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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 25 December 19
EXHAUST GAS CLEANING SYSTEMS (SCRUBBER) GUIDANCE - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a few weeks, IMO’s ‘global sulphur cap’ will take effect. The permitted levels of SOx in ship emissi ...
Wednesday, 25 December 19
INDONESIAN BUKIT ASAM TARGETS TO MINE 30 MLN T OF COAL IN 2020 - REUTERS
Indonesian state-owned coal miner PT Bukit Asam targets to produce around 30 million tonnes of coal in 2020, compared with an estimate of 28.5 mill ...
Wednesday, 25 December 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As another year in the shipping industry is coming to an end, it is interesting to look at the dry bulk and tanker markets and how these performed ...
Monday, 23 December 19
VLSFO PRICING & AVAILABILITY NEEDS CAREFUL WATCHING - INTEGR8 FUELS
As we approach January 1st 2020 , the VLSFO price premium to HSFO has widened considerably
We are clearly well into the IMO 2020 transition; ch ...
Sunday, 22 December 19
NMDC DIVERSIFIES INTO COAL MINING - THE HINDU
Iron ore mining major NMDC has been allocated two coal blocks in Jharkhand for commercial mining by the Union Ministry of Coal.
Both ...
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Showing 1226 to 1230 news of total 6871 |
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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