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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 17 December 19
BACK TO FUTURE FOR BUSH AS AUSTRALIA CONSIDERS MOVING AWAY FROM COAL NEWCASTLE - HERALD
Looking backwards could show the way forward for regional communities planning for a future beyond mining.
One of Australia’s ...
Tuesday, 17 December 19
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.01 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 133.16 points, down 0.01 percent week on week.
The index, released by China Taiy ...
Tuesday, 17 December 19
YEAR 2019: IT IS LOOKING SET THAT THIS YEAR WILL BE ONE OF THE SLOWEST IN TERMS OF DRY BULK NEWBUILDING ACTIVITY - ALLIED
With just two weeks remaining before 2019 comes to an end, it is now looking set that this year will be one of the slowest in terms of dry bulk new ...
Monday, 16 December 19
ULTRAMAX: A 63,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY FOR A SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, FOR RE-DELIVERY TO CHINA AT $11,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was one-way traffic for the Capesize market this past week, with all routes giving up value. While downward momentum may have slowe ...
Monday, 16 December 19
THE OUTLOOK FOR U.S. THERMAL COAL IS INCREASINGLY STRESSED - MOODY'S
- Slowing global economic growth, trade tensions will continue to exert influence
- Coal's secular decline will persist in 2020
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Showing 1241 to 1245 news of total 6871 |
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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