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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 28 December 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000DWT VESSEL, OPEN CIGADING, FIXED A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $8,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week has been attempting to recalibrate itself in consideration of weakening freight levels and increasing ...
Saturday, 28 December 19
CHINESE INDUSTRIAL CITY TO FURTHER CUT COAL CONSUMPTION - XINHUA
Harbin, capital city of Heilongjiang Province in China’s northeastern industrial heartland, is planning to further reduce its coal consumptio ...
Friday, 27 December 19
MISERY LOOMS OVER TOP COAL SHIPPERS AS CHINA TO BUY LESS IN 2020 BLOOMBERG
China isn’t cutting back on consumption of the most-polluting fossil fuel just yet, but it is set to reduce imports.
The world ...
Thursday, 26 December 19
REVIEW OF 2019 AND OUTLOOK FOR 2020 - OPEC
Global economic growth slowed in 2019, impacted by a variety of challenges. Trade issues not only led to reduction in global final consumption but ...
Wednesday, 25 December 19
COVER FOR WAR AND TERRORISM RISKS, AND COVER IN RESPECT OF BIOLOGICAL AND BIO-CHEMICAL WEAPONS - 2020 POLICY YEAR: AMERICAN CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This Circular describes the arrangements which have been made to provide special cover for war and terrorism risks, and c ...
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Showing 1221 to 1225 news of total 6871 |
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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