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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 30 December 19
AUSTRALIAN MINERS HIT BY LOWEST THERMAL COAL PRICE IN MORE THAN A DECADE - THE GUARDIAN
Australian coal exporters have experienced the biggest annual drop in thermal coal prices in more than a decade during 2019, raising doubts about i ...
Monday, 30 December 19
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS RISE 4% TO 161.43 MT IN APRIL-NOVEMBER 2019 - PTI
The country’s coal imports registered an increase of 4.4 per cent to 161.43 million tonnes (MT) in the April-November period of the ongoing f ...
Sunday, 29 December 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Sunday, 29 December 19
IMO 2020 COMPLIANCE: IT'S UP TO US TO BE GOOD CITIZENS - IBIA
One of the concerns around implementation of the 0.50% sulphur limit has been, and continues to be, the need for effective enforcement to ensure a ...
Sunday, 29 December 19
AUSTRALIA SUFFERS WORST OF CHINA'S COAL CURBS AFTER EARLIER BOOM - BLOOMBERG
Australia is bearing the brunt of China’s year-end coal import restrictions, ceding market share to other exporters including Russia and Mong ...
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Showing 1216 to 1220 news of total 6871 |
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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