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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 03 March 20
COAL'S SHARE OF CHINA ENERGY MIX FALLS IN 2019 BUT CONSUMPTION STILL RISING - REUTERS
Coal accounted for 57.7% of China’s primary energy consumption in 2019, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday, down 1.5 percentage ...
Monday, 02 March 20
SHIPOWNERS AND OPERATORS COULD FACE DETENTION OF SHIPS FROM 1ST MARCH UNDER IMO RULE - ICS
Port state control authorities will begin to enforce the IMO’s Sulphur 2020 from 1st March, making it an offense for ships to carry fuel that ...
Saturday, 29 February 20
SUPRAMAX SENTIMENT WAS UP IN A FEW KEY AREAS OVER THE LAST WEEK - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market woes related to Coronavirus have now spread through the wider global markets like wildfire. The wider supply and d ...
Thursday, 27 February 20
FOREIGN COMPANIES LIKELY TO SKIP COMMERCIAL COAL BLOCK AUCTIONS - ECONOMIC TIMES
The Centre is in the process of inviting global players for commercial mining, following 100% foreign direct investment in the sector. However, giv ...
Wednesday, 26 February 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Coming from one of its busiest periods historically, with a list of scrubber and BWMS retrofits on a waiting list, the ship repair sector is witnes ...
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Showing 1101 to 1105 news of total 6871 |
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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