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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 26 February 20
AS ALL OF THE GLOBAL COAL GIANTS EXIT SOUTH AFRICA, ESKOM TO DEPEND ON TWO MINERS FOR 70% OF ITS SUPPLY - BUSINESS INSIDER
While some of its politicians continue to imagine that coal has a future in South Africa, two key developments from the real world show that securi ...
Tuesday, 25 February 20
DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR REGISTERED A NET PROFIT OF US$20 MILLION FOR FY 2019
PT Delta Dunia Makmur, one of the largest coal mining company in Indonesia, has recorded an US$882 million revenue for FY 2019, 1% lower compared t ...
Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quart ...
Monday, 24 February 20
COULD SOME VLSFO FUELS BE BANNED? - GIBSON
The run up to the implementation of the new IMO rules on marine fuels from1st January 2020 had owners and charterers analysing the vari ...
Monday, 24 February 20
CHINA SAYS MAJOR COAL FIRMS RESTORE 95% OF PRODUCTION CAPACITY - REUTERS
China’s coal companies controlled by the central government have resumed operations and are back at more than 95% of their capacity, an offic ...
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Showing 1106 to 1110 news of total 6871 |
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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