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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Sunday, 23 February 20
SHIPPING INDUSTRY FACES $370 MILLION HIT FROM NEW PANAMA CANAL CHARGE - REUTERS
A new “freshwater” charge that came in this month to help the Panama Canal cope with climate change will cost the shipping industry up ...
Sunday, 23 February 20
A 57,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY SOUTH KALIMANTAN TRIP, REDELIVERY CJK, AT $7,600 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market found little to cheer about this week as it again endured remarkable lows. The Atlantic continued to improve, with ...
Saturday, 22 February 20
THE SURPRISING MOVE IN MARINE FUEL SPREADS - ING
Middle distillates tank
One of the biggest surprises since the implementation of new International Maritime Organization (IMO) sulphur regulati ...
Friday, 21 February 20
CAPE: AVERAGE NOMINAL DAILY EARNINGS STILL ADMITTEDLY UNCHANGED W-O-W AT BELOW US$3000 - FEARNLEYS
CAPE
The worst may just about be over for the big ships. Average nominal daily earnings still admittedly unchanged w-o-w at below US$3k, but sent ...
Friday, 21 February 20
INDIA: POTENTIAL INVESTORS SEEK MORE CLARITY ON COMMERCIAL COAL MINING NORMS - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Potential private investors have sought more clarity on the pricing mechanism proposed for the much-anticipated auction for commercial coal mining. ...
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Showing 1111 to 1115 news of total 6871 |
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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