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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 05 March 20
INDONESIA'S BUKIT ASAM 2019 OUTPUT RISES 10.2% Y/Y - REUTERS
PT Bukit Asam, Indonesia’s state-owned coal miner, said on Wednesday its output in 2019 rose 10.2% to 29.1 million tonnes.
Coa ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
SEEING REMOTELY - IN SAFETY: BUREAU VERITAS PERFORMS FIRST SURVEY BY DRONE - BUREAU VERITAS
Bureau Veritas Marine & Offshore (BV), a world leader in testing, inspection and certification (TIC) services has completed its first survey by ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
AN EPIDEMIC OF UNCERTAINTY - THE CORONAVIRUS AND FORCE MAJEURE - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Do the effects of the coronavirus give rise to legitimate force majeure claims in connection with shipbuilding contracts ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
CHINA IMPORTED 76.8 MLN TONNES OF CRUDE OIL FOR JANUARY & FEBRUARY 2020; UP 3.4% YOY - REFINITIV | BC
The COVID-19 crisis has been gripping China already for almost two months now. It’s having a huge negative impact on the economy, and this is ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As it was expected, the whole world has been focusing on the spread of the Coronavirus, with the fast outbreak being primarily a massive humanitari ...
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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