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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 04 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: A WILDCARD FOR BULKS DEMAND - WOOD MACKENZIE
The coronavirus is casting a shadow across commodity markets. It has undermined China’s economic sentiment, putting the country’s growt ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
THERMAL COAL TO 'PHASE OUT', STRONG DEMAND FOR COKING COAL: PLATO - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Plato Investments managing director Don Hamson says Australian iron ore producers are set to benefit in the fallout from coronavirus as China will ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
CHINA PROVINCE TO CLOSE 10 MLN TONNES OF COAL CAPACITY IN 2020 - XINHUA
Southwest China’s Guizhou Province plans to phase out 10 million tonnes of outdated coal production capacity by closing 80 coal mines in 2020 ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
UKRAINE PRODUCED OVER 2.55 MLN TONNES OF COAL IN FEBRUARY - UKRINFORM
In February 2020, Ukraine produced over 2.55 million tonnes of coal, which is 0.2% less than planned.
The Coal Miners Union of Ukrai ...
Tuesday, 03 March 20
IMPORTANCE OF MASTER'S CARGO CHECKS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Adecision in recent High Court case has made it clear that there is no implied indemnity from a charterer to their counte ...
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Showing 1096 to 1100 news of total 6871 |
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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