We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 06 March 20
SOLID BACKING FOR LNG AS A MARINE FUEL - BALTIC EXCHANGE
When it comes to choosing the best fuel on the near horizon to help the international shipping industry shrink its carbon intensity by 2050, DNV GL ...
Friday, 06 March 20
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AGAIN THIS MONTH
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
PANAMAX: SHIP-OWNERS HAVE MOSTLY BEEN GETTING HIGHER RATES THAN THE LAST DONE - FEARNLEYS
Cape
There is still limited amount of positive news around, with the effects of Corona virus hurting world economy. However, overall average in ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
COAL IMPORTS DOWN IN MAJOR ASIAN MARKETS, AND CORONAVIRUS NOT THE DRIVING FORCE - CLYDE RUSSELL
Asia’s seaborne coal markets stumbled in February and it appears the coronavirus outbreak in China may dodge most of the blame, with the weak ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
SEABORNE COAL'S STRUGGLES IN ASIA ARE MORE THAN JUST CHINA CORONAVIRUS - REUTERS
Asia’s seaborne coal markets stumbled in February and it appears the coronavirus outbreak in China may dodge most of the blame, with the weak ...
|
|
|
Showing 1086 to 1090 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
|
| |
| |
|
