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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 09 March 20
OPEC+ 'NO DEAL' A BLOW TO THE MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
Speaking after today’s OPEC+ meeting broke up, Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, Macro Oils, at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Today’s o ...
Monday, 09 March 20
KOREA EAST-WEST POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 150,000 MT OF MIN 4,400 - MAX 5,499 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: KOREA EAST-WEST POWER CO. LTD. of South Korea has issued an international tender for total 150,000 MT of LCV coal for May – Jun ...
Sunday, 08 March 20
SUPRAMAX: A 55,000DWT VESSEL FIXING DELIVERY FROM EAST KALIMANTAN FOR A TRIP TO VIETNAM AT $9,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
SUPRAMAX/ULTRAMAX - A 56,000DWT VESSEL FIXED DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY EAST COAST INDIA, IN THE $6,000S
SUPRAMAX/U ...
Friday, 06 March 20
CHINA RESUMES 83.4 PCT COAL PRODUCTION CAPACITY AMID EPIDEMIC - XINHUA
China has resumed 83.4 percent of its coal production capacity amid the fight against the novel coronavirus outbreak, the National Energy Administr ...
Friday, 06 March 20
COLOMBIAN COAL OUTPUT FELL 2% IN 2019 - REUTERS
Coal production in Colombia, the fifth-largest coal exporter in the world, fell 2% to 82.2 million tonnes in 2019 after output at one of the princi ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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