We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 11 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On the 4th of September the Baltic Dry Index marked its highest level for 2019, reaching 2,518 points, while the rest of the dry indices also recor ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS
It might be already overstated, but it seems to be important to point out once again how peculiar the current circumstances are.
Before the st ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
EIA FORECASTS U.S ELECTRIC POWER SECTOR DEMAND FOR COAL WILL FALL BY 81 MMST (15%) IN 2020
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 595 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, down 95 MMst (14%) from 2019. According to EIA's Shor ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: DEMAND DOWNGRADES FOR BULK COMMODITIES - WOOD MACKENZIE
The coronavirus outbreak is a rapidly evolving news story – and a real wildcard for bulks demand. Our global experts are monitoring the impac ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE ENSURES ENERGY SUPPLY AMID EPIDEMIC - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has seen more than 500 coal mines resume production in February, which ensured energy supply amid the ou ...
|
|
|
Showing 1076 to 1080 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
|
| |
| |
|
