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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 13 March 20
TOP 4 ACCOUNTING CONSIDERATIONS AFTER THE IMPLEMENTATION OF IMO 2020 - PWC
To install or not to install?
Following the IMO 2020 global low sulphur cap for marine fuel effective since 1 January 2020, many shi ...
Friday, 13 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Friday, 13 March 20
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 390,000 MT OF THERMAL COAL FOR MAY-JUNE 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN), has issued an international tender for total 390,000 Metric Tons of coal for May & June ...
Thursday, 12 March 20
INDIA 2019 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS RISE 12.6% TO NEARLY 200 MILLION TONNES - REUTERS
India’s thermal coal imports rose 12.6% to nearly 200 million tonnes in 2019, government data reviewed by Reuters showed, reflecting the seco ...
Wednesday, 11 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.07 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 133.16 points Monday, up 0.07 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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