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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 17 March 20
IT IS NOW UNQUESTIONABLE THAT 2020 WILL BE A MILESTONE YEAR FOR THE OIL MARKET, AS WELL AS THE WHOLE GLOBAL ECONOMY - ALLIED
It is now unquestionable that 2020 will be a milestone year for the oil market, as well as the whole global economy. The impact from the COVID-19 o ...
Tuesday, 17 March 20
PRELIMINARY FIELD EXPERIENCES ON THE EFFECTS OF LSFO AND VLSFO ON CYLINDER CONDITION - HANS JENSEN LUBRICATORS
It is now more than two months since the 0.5% sulphur cap entered into force, which have affected the operation of more than 70,000 vessels. As ant ...
Monday, 16 March 20
ULTRAMAX: S8 INDONESIA-INDIA AND S10 INDONESIA-CHINA ROUTES BOTH POSTED GAINS OF $1,412, AND $1,289 ON THE WEEK, TO CLOSE AT $5,575, AND $6,089 RESPECTIVELY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market came to work on Monday, with little expectation, or confidence, that the days ahead were going to bring anything o ...
Sunday, 15 March 20
CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT RISES 19% IN APRIL-FEBRUARY - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal production from captive mines in the first eleven months of the ongoing fiscal have increased by 18.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 51.7 million to ...
Friday, 13 March 20
PANAMAX: SLIGHTLY STRONGER NUMBERS IN BOTH BASINS THIS WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Still very sad times for the big ships, and merit in further trading at present levels is highly debatable for most tonnage. Spot fixtures ...
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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