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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in ...
Monday, 13 April 20
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Capesize
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KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
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Saturday, 11 April 20
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Friday, 10 April 20
INDIA'S BULKS SUPPLY CHAIN TAKES A HIT DURING LOCKDOWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
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Showing 1016 to 1020 news of total 6871 |
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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