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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 17 April 20
OPEC BRACES FOR OIL MARKET'S "HISTORIC SHOCK"
OPEC released its much anticipated April monthly report.
Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices collapsed in March 2020, rec ...
Friday, 17 April 20
SAUDI ARABIA'S MAY 2020 OSPS FOR CRUDE EXPORTS BODE WELL FOR ASIAN REFINERS - WOOD MACKENZIE
On 13 April, Saudi Arabia announced the Official Selling Prices (OSPs) for its May crude oil exports. The new OSPs speak volumes about Saudi Arabia ...
Friday, 17 April 20
SEABORNE COAL PRICES UNDER PRESSURE AS DEMAND SOFTENS IN CHINA, INDIA - CLYDE RUSSELL
Worrying signs are emerging for coal exporters to the world’s biggest markets in Asia, as top buyers China and India move to favour domestic ...
Thursday, 16 April 20
THERMAL POWER SECTOR FACES BLEAK SCENARIO POST-COVID SITUATION - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The centre should take a fresh look at coal-energy value chain as the sector tops the chart on loan defaults.
Covid-19 may have serv ...
Thursday, 16 April 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE FALLS 5 YUAN PER TONNE - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price fell by 5 yuan (about 70 U.S. cents) per tonne during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Co ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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