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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 24 April 20
CHINA COAL PRODUCER YANZHOU COAL POSTS 9.6 PCT RISE IN 2019 NET PROFIT - XINHUA
China’s major coal producer Yanzhou Coal Mining Co., Ltd. said Thursday that its net profit saw a 9.6 percent rise in 2019.
Th ...
Tuesday, 21 April 20
INDONESIA ACCOUNTS FOR 19% OF JAPAN'S TOTAL COAL IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
Coal trade in Asia is proving remarkably resilient this year, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19.
We have seen China&r ...
Tuesday, 21 April 20
COVID-19: CHARTERPARTY MATTERS FOR SHIPOWNERS - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Whilst the plight of cruise ships, stranded off shore with sick passengers and crew, may be dominating media headlines, t ...
Monday, 20 April 20
SUPRAMAX: A 52,000DWT SHIP FIXING AN INDONESIA COAL RUN TO CHINA AT $4400 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week was the strongest period seen for the Capesize market in several months. All routes globally succumbed to improved sentiment ...
Friday, 17 April 20
PANDEMIC TO BRING ASIA'S 2020 GROWTH TO HALT FOR 1ST TIME IN 60 YEARS - IMF: REUTERS
Asia’s economic growth this year will grind to a halt for the first time in 60 years, as the coronavirus crisis takes an “unprecedented ...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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