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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 07 April 20
COAL INDIA'S DISPATCHES DROP, OUTPUT INCREASES - THE HINDU
India’s largest coal producer Coal India Ltd. (CIL) has seen a 10% fall in dispatches in March 2020 due to a sharp fall in demand from the po ...
Tuesday, 07 April 20
CORONAVIRUS AND LOCKDOWNS DRAG DOWN THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN APRIL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of the Indonesian ther ...
Monday, 06 April 20
A 52,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY TAIWAN, AT $3,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week looks to have come off life support and found some improved sentiment. The week began rather ordina ...
Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this me ...
Friday, 03 April 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
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Showing 1026 to 1030 news of total 6871 |
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- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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