We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 09 April 20
SUSPENSION OF WRONGFUL TRADING IN LIGHT OF COVID 19 - WF&W
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
DIRECTORS’ PERSONAL LIABILITY FOR WRONGFUL TRADING – RELIEF DURING THE CORONAVIRUS CRISIS
As the UK&rsquo ...
Wednesday, 08 April 20
LESSONS LEARNED FROM SCRUBBER INSTALLATION AND OPERATION - ABS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
At the beginning of this year, the IMO’s global sulfur cap on marine fuels entered into force and shipowners who ch ...
Wednesday, 08 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With lockdown measures around the globe tightening during the last weeks of Q1, there is finally a feeling that most countries are slowly but stead ...
Tuesday, 07 April 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
With the first quarter of 2020 now firmly written in the books, it is worth examining what we have witnessed so far in the tanker market. Undoubted ...
Tuesday, 07 April 20
IS CHINA EMBARKING ON A MAJOR EXPANSION OF COAL-FIRED POWER GENERATION? - WOOD MACKENZIE
As energy companies worldwide grapple with the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, long-term planning continues. Ahead of the release of t ...
|
|
|
Showing 1021 to 1025 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
|
| |
| |
|
