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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 25 April 20
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO. INVITED BIDS FOR 780K - 900K MT OF 5600 NCV COAL FOR JULY TO OCTOBER 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 780,000~900,000 Metric Tons (MT) s ...
Saturday, 25 April 20
SEAFARER MENTAL WELLBEING DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
COVID-19 has forced many parts of the world to enforce a lockdown in a bid to flatten the curve in terms of transmissions ...
Friday, 24 April 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR 5700 NAR COAL FOR JUNE & JULY LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd. (KOMIPO) Has Issued An International Tender For 260,000 Metric Tons (MT) Steam Coal ...
Friday, 24 April 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 24 April 20
COAL INDIA TO PRODUCE 710 MT COAL - MINISTER OF COAL AND MINES
Coal India Limited (CIL) will produce 710 million tonnes (MT) of coal and company’s coal off take target will also remain at710 MT for this f ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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