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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 17 December 20
CHINA'S BAN IS LESS OF A THREAT TO AUSTRALIA'S COAL INDUSTRY THAN INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE AMBITION - IEEFA
Australian coal exporters will survive this near-term political fight but there are longterm structural headwinds
The decision by Ch ...
Thursday, 17 December 20
BUMA SIGNED US$1.0 BILLION WORTH OF EXTENSION CONTRACT WITH BERAU COAL
PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, subsidiary of PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has extended its mining services contracts with PT Berau Coal, in relation ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIA 2020 COAL CONSUMPTION ESTIMATED AT 140-145 MLN TONNES - OFFICIAL, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia’s domestic coal consumption is estimated at 140-145 million tonnes this year, Dodik Ariyanto, an official at the energy ministry, t ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
RUSSIA REVISES DOWN EXPORT EXPECTATION - FITCH
The Ministry of Economy of Russia, the world’s third largest thermal coal exporting country, released its annual forecasts ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDIAN COAL IMPORTS TO REMAIN SUBDUED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Rating commented on Indian Coal Imports, Fitch said, coal imports by Indian utilities fell by about 24% yoy to 44 million tonnes (mt) i ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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