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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 14 December 20
PHILIPPINE BANK RCBC TO STOP LENDING FOR NEW COAL-FIRED POWER PROJECTS - MANILA BULLETIN
Yuchengco-led Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation (RCBC) has forthrightly declared that it will no longer extend financing to new coal-fired power ...
Sunday, 13 December 20
LONGSTANDING DOWNSIDE RISKS TO TRADE OUTLOOK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The OECD has attempted to put a positive spin on the trade message emanating from its latest economic outlook, released last week.
The ...
Sunday, 13 December 20
INDONESIA COAL OUTPUT AT 514 MILLION TONNES THIS YEAR, 2021 TARGET UNCHANGED - REUTERS
Indonesia coal output in the period to Dec. 10 stood at 514.2 million tonnes, official data from the energy ministry’s website showed.
&n ...
Thursday, 10 December 20
MALAYSIA'S CIMB ANNOUNCES COAL FINANCING PHASE-OUT BY 2040 AS ASIA'S FOSSIL FUEL DIVESTMENT DRIVE ACCELERATES - IEEFA
The first emerging markets bank to announce a progressive coal exit policy
Malaysia’s CIMB Group Holdings (CIMB) has announced ...
Wednesday, 09 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Heading towards the end of a difficult year and with the entire planet under the shadow of the covid-19 virus, it is interesting to proceed with a ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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