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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 21 December 20
COAL'S PARTIAL RECOVERY IS SET TO FADE AFTER 2021 - IEA
Global coal consumption is estimated to have fallen by 7%, or over 500 million tonnes, between 2018 in 2020. A decline of this size over a two-year ...
Monday, 21 December 20
A REBOUND IN GLOBAL COAL DEMAND IN 2021 IS SET TO BE SHORT-LIVED, BUT NO IMMEDIATE DECLINE IN SIGHT - IEA
After a major drop in recent years, global coal demand is forecast to rise by 2.6% in 2021 before flattening out to 2025
A global ec ...
Friday, 18 December 20
AUSTRALIA PM WARNS OF ‘LOSE-LOSE’ IN ANY CHINA COAL SHIFT - REUTERS
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said any shift by China away from importing high quality Australian coal would be a “lose-lose&rdquo ...
Friday, 18 December 20
BIG OIL AND COAL EXPORTERS FACE RECKONING AS PARIS AGREEMENT TURNS FIVE - CNA
On Dec 12, more than 70 global leaders came together at the UN’s Climate Ambition Summit, marking the fifth anniversary of the Paris Agreemen ...
Friday, 18 December 20
SOUTH AFRICAN COAL EXPORTERS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE ASIAN MARKETS - BANCHERO COSTA
South Africa is the fourth largest exporter of coal in the world, after Australia, Indonesia and Russia. In calendar 2019 the country exported a to ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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