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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 16 December 20
CHINA TO BOOST DOMESTIC SUPPLY - FITCH
China’s benchmark Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg coal price rose above the government’s upper yellow interval of CNY600/tonne in early Octobe ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIAN COAL RECOVERING - FITCH
Commenting on Indonesian coal, Fitch Ratings, the Indonesian 4,200 kcal index has begun to recover, improving to over USD 29 in November compared t ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
NEWCASTLE PRICES RECOVER - FITCH
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD 70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease l ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
APAC COAL PRICES REBOUND ON IMPROVED DEMAND AND SUPPLY CUTS - FITCH RATINGS
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease loc ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
CHINA EXTENDS FULL OPEN GESTURE TO IMPORTED COAL EXCEPT FOR AUSTRALIA - GLOBAL TIMES
Domestic, overseas suppliers will take up share with easier clearance
China's top economic planner on Saturday gave approval to ...
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Showing 706 to 710 news of total 6871 |
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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