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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 22 December 20
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND DESPITE PLUMMETING IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in India amounted to 979 Mt in 2019, with the largest share being thermal coal (including lignite) for electricity generation (687 ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
SOUTHEAST ASIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND AFTER THE PANDEMIC-INDUCED HIATUS IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in Southeast Asia has more than doubled in the last decade, with the largest growth in Indonesia and Viet Nam, followed by Malaysi ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
COAL DEMAND IS RISING QUICKLY IN PAKISTAN AND MORE SLOWLY IN BANGLADESH - IEA
Pakistan had 150 MW of installed coal power capacity in 2015. Since 2017, in addition to a few small plants for industry, Pakistan has commissioned ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
AFRICA PERSPECTIVE INDICATES NO MAJOR SHIFTS FOR COAL CONSUMPTION - IEA
Overall countries on the African continent consumed 197 Mt of coal in 2019, 12 Mt less (-6%) than 2018.
South Africa, the continent& ...
Monday, 21 December 20
COAL PRICES WITHSTAND DESPITE COVID-19 AND CHINESE IMPORT QUOTAS - IEA
Coal prices vary by region as well as by grade and quality. The price rebound starting in 2016 ended in 2018, moving in a downward trend in 2019. A ...
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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