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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power short ...
Wednesday, 13 January 21
COAL TO BE BIGGEST CONTRIBUTOR TO INDIA'S $5 TRILLION ECONOMY: AMIT SHAH - BUSINESS STANDARD
The Centre on Monday awarded the letter of allocation to successful bidders of coal mines under the commercial auction held during October-November ...
Monday, 11 January 21
MUTED COAL RECOVERY IN 2021 - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Coal demand is expected to rebound in 2021
Medium-term outlook is less favourable although demand declines are expected to be subtle ...
Sunday, 10 January 21
KOREAN GENCOS INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 880,000 TONS OF COAL FOR MARCH 2021 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN), on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO issued an international tender for total 880 ...
Friday, 08 January 21
INDIA COULD COMPETE AGAINST CHINA IN SOLAR MODULE PRODUCTION WITH THE RIGHT GOVERNMENT SUPPORT - IEEFA
The focus should be on helping manufacturers become globally competitive
Although one of the top 10 solar module producers in the world, India ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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