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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 07 January 21
FITCH FORECASTS DOUBLING IN ASIAN WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY BY 2029, TOPPING 1,500GW
Despite some near-term delays due to the Covid-19 pandemic, solar power and offshore wind will drive steep growth in non-hydro renewables in Asia, ...
Wednesday, 06 January 21
INDONESIA EXCEEDS COAL PRODUCTION TARGET IN 2020
Indonesian coal production reached 557.54 Million Tons in 2020 1.37% higher than of last year’s total target of 550.00 Million Tons, accordin ...
Wednesday, 06 January 21
CHINESE CITIES REPORTEDLY GO DARK AS COUNTRY FACES SHORTAGE OF COAL, A MAJOR AUSTRALIAN EXPORT - CNBC
Several major Chinese cities have reportedly gone dark as authorities limit power usage, citing a shortage of coal.
Analysts said pr ...
Tuesday, 05 January 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 136 points Monday, up 0.91 percent week on week.
The index, released by China Ta ...
Tuesday, 05 January 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SOARS TO HIGHEST ONE-MONTH INCREASE SINCE DECEMBER 2016
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for January 2021 settles above $75 for the first time since July 2019 and to highest one-month inc ...
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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