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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 04 January 21
U.S. RENEWABLE ENERGY CONSUMPTION SURPASSES COAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER 130 YEARS - EIA
In 2019, U.S. annual energy consumption from renewable sources exceeded coal consumption for the first time since before 1885, according to the U.S ...
Monday, 04 January 21
BLISS FOR SHIPOWNERS! DAMAGES MAY BE CLAIMED IN ADDITION TO DEMURRAGE FOR VOYAGE CHARTERPARTY DELAY - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a significant decision for the maritime sector, The Eternal Bliss[1], the English Commercial Court has resol ...
Sunday, 03 January 21
INDIA: COMMERCE MINISTRY LAUNCHES COAL IMPORT MONITORING SYSTEM - PTI
CIMS shall require importers to submit advance information in an online system for imports of items and obtain an automatic registration number by ...
Wednesday, 30 December 20
A LOOK BACK INTO 2020: THE HEADWINDS, THE TAILWINDS AND EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN - SIGNAL
There is no doubt that 2020 has been a turbulent year for commercial shipping. The coronavirus pandemic has shaken the global maritime transport. T ...
Tuesday, 29 December 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.66 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 134.78 points Monday, up 0.66 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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