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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 23 January 21
GOVT PLANNING TO OPEN UP COAL MARKETING TO STREAMLINE PROCESS - THE INDIAN EXPRESS
The government is considering opening up coal marketing, Coal Secretary Anil Kumar Jain said on Thursday. Currently, production by Coal India is al ...
Thursday, 21 January 21
LNG MARKET RIDING HIGH, BUT WILL THE GAINS CONTINUE? - DREWRY
The LNG market started 2021 on a high note with Asian spot prices crossing $30 per MMBtu while LNG shipping rates recorded a high $350k per day due ...
Thursday, 21 January 21
CHINA'S SPOT THERMAL COAL PRICES REFRESH RECORD HIGH - MYSTEEL
Despite the moderate rebound in temperatures across most regions of China after late December’s deep-freeze, thermal coal prices in the count ...
Wednesday, 20 January 21
CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK IN HEBEI HAS LIMITED IMPACT ON CHINA'S STEEL INDUSTRY - FITCH RATINGS
The recent Covid-19 outbreak in the steel producing hub Hebei will not have material impact on China’s steel industry, Fitch Ratings says.
...
Wednesday, 20 January 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While 2020 is finally behind us, its negative impacts are still hovering over the shipping market. That being said, it is still too early to even s ...
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Showing 661 to 665 news of total 6871 |
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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