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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 16 January 21
SEABORNE TRADE IN STEAM COAL DECREASED BY 11.6% FROM 937 MILLION TONNES IN 2019 TO 828 MILLION TONNES IN 2020 - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
According to preliminary calculations by the German Coal Importers Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e. V.), global hard coal production dec ...
Friday, 15 January 21
OVER US$50 BILLION IN GAS POWER PROJECTS AND LNG IMPORT FACILITIES AT RISK OF CANCELLATION IN BANGLADESH, PAKISTAN AND VIETNAM - IEEFA
Pakistan and Bangladesh have already cancelled tenders for LNG imports
Emerging markets such as Vietnam, Pakistan and Bangladesh tha ...
Friday, 15 January 21
VIETNAM'S EXTRAORDINARY ROOFTOP SOLAR SUCCESS DEALS ANOTHER BLOW TO THE REMAINING COAL PIPELINE - IEEFA
9.3 gigawatts peak of solar capacity, equal to 6 coal power plants, installed in less than a year
Vietnam’s solar power indust ...
Friday, 15 January 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 14 January 21
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITED BIDS FOR AUSTRALIAN COAL FOR THREE YEARS SUPPLY
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, issued an International tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Min.5,700 kcal/kg NCV coal of Australian Origin ...
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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