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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Sunday, 18 April 21
INDONESIA LIKELY TO WITNESS 119 OIL AND GAS PROJECTS STARTS ACROSS VALUE CHAIN BY 2025, SAYS GLOBALDATA
Indonesia is expected to witness 119 oil and gas projects commencing their operations across value chain during 2021-2025, accounting for 6% of the ...
Sunday, 18 April 21
WORLDSTEEL RAISES 2021 STEEL DEMAND GROWTH FORECAST TO 5.8% - WORLDSTEEL
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2021 and 2022. worldsteel forecasts that steel demand wil ...
Sunday, 18 April 21
CHINA'S Q1 COAL OUTPUT RISES 16% ON STRONG DEMAND FOR WINTER HEATING - REUTERS
China’s coal output rose 16% in the first quarter from the same period last year, bolstered by strong demand for winter heating and robust in ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
INDIA HAS A RECORD LEVEL OF STOCKPILED COAL DAMPENING NEED FOR NEW DOMESTIC MINES - IEEFA
Proposed coal mining expansions at odds with excess supply
India has stockpiled a record 132 million tonnes of coal – enough t ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
BANGLADESH NEEDS A RENEWABLES FOCUS, NOT A SWITCH FROM 'COAL TO GAS' - IEEFA
Renewables are cheaper and more sustainable than gas imports, and can provide better energy security in developing nations
The emerg ...
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Showing 596 to 600 news of total 6871 |
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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