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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 08 May 21
LNG-TO-POWER INVESTORS IN THE PHILIPPINES RISK EXPOSURE TO $14 BILLION IN STRANDED ASSETS - IEEFA
High regulatory and financial uncertainty in the Philippines market
The race to develop liquified natural gas (LNG) facilities in th ...
Saturday, 08 May 21
THE COAL-TO-RENEWABLES TRANSITION TAKES OFF - IEEFA
Pre-Biden changes underscore coming 10-year wave of coal plant retirements
The traditional S-curve growth exhibited by disruptive te ...
Friday, 07 May 21
CHINA'S TOTAL COAL IMPORTS FOR 2020 REACHED A VOLUME OF 304 MILLION TONS - ASSOCARBONI
Our benchmarks, manufacturing Countries like China, Germany, Japan, India, South Korea and Taiwan will continue to use a mix of coal and nuclear to ...
Friday, 07 May 21
SEABORNE WORLD COAL TRADE CLOSED 2020 IN NEGATIVE - ASSOCARBONI
Coal confirmed its leadership as leading fuel for electricity generation also in 2020, accounting for 38% of overall production. For the first time ...
Friday, 07 May 21
INDONESIA'S THERMAL COAL EXPORTS IN 2020 DECREASED BY 13%; INDIA REMAINED THE TOP DESTINATION FOR INDONESIAN COAL - ASSOCARBONI
An increase in seaborne trade is forecast for 2022, driven by markets in Southeast Asia, where growing demand for coal from Bangladesh, the Philipp ...
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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