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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 14 April 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 1.10 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 138.05 points Monday, down 1.10 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
After a series of months where the dry bulk sector was attracting most of the buying interest, tankers SnP activity spiked in the previous weeks. O ...
Tuesday, 13 April 21
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN APRIL UP AGAIN ON FIRM DEMAND
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for April 2021 settles at US$ 86.68 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pr ...
Monday, 12 April 21
CHINA'S ECONOMIC RECOVERY PUSHES COAL MINES TO INCREASE YIELD - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s fast economic rebound from coronavirus has driven up electricity demand, leading to higher consumption of coal which is seeing rising ...
Monday, 12 April 21
GLOBAL COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO RISE BY 3.5% IN 2021, SAYS GLOBALDATA
Global coal output is estimated to have declined by 2% in 2020 due to COVID-19-related lockdowns and restrictions, with significant reductions obse ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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