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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 30 April 21
HIGH-SULPHUR FUEL OIL SALES REBOUND AFTER PRE-IMO 2020 - BIMCO
HSFO sales are up 47.2% from Q1 2020, reaching 3.1m tonnes. This is however still less than a third of high-sulphur fuel sales in Q1 2019, before t ...
Wednesday, 28 April 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Despite the current challenges as a result of the global pandemic, 2021 is turning out to be a landmark year for the iron ore market with spot pric ...
Monday, 26 April 21
CHINA TO FURTHER CUT COAL USE IN 2021 - XINHUA
China aims to reduce the share of coal in its energy mix to less than 56% this year, according to a guideline released by the National Energy Admin ...
Wednesday, 21 April 21
COAL FINANCING COSTS HAVE SURGED IN PAST 10 YEARS - UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD - THE GUARDIAN
Coal financing costs have surged over the last decade as investors demand returns four times as high as the payoff required from renewable energy p ...
Tuesday, 20 April 21
US DOLLAR LIBOR TRANSITION IN ASSET FINANCE - WHERE ARE WE NOW? - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
Since our last article, there has been a raft of regulatory and market body announcements relating to the transition away from LIBOR and the follow ...
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Showing 591 to 595 news of total 6871 |
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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