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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 07 April 21
KOMIPO ISSUED A TENDER FOR TOTAL 1,560,000 METRIC TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for total 1,560,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous coal for i ...
Wednesday, 07 April 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the end of the catholic easter, during which the majority of shipping market participants were on holidays, it is interesting to note a f ...
Wednesday, 07 April 21
COAL USED TO GENERATE ELECTRIC POWER IN U.S. WILL INCREASE BY 13 PERCENT TO 495 MMST IN 2021 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 585 MMst in 2021, 46 MMst (9%) more than in 2020. In 2022, EIA expects coal production to grow by an addi ...
Wednesday, 31 March 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.12 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 139.03 points Monday, up 0.12 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 31 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Over the past week, the biggest story has been the blockage of the Suez Canal, as a result of the grounding of the container ship Ever Given. At th ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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