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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Tuesday, 17 January 23
CHINA'S SHANXI TARGETS 2023 COAL PRODUCTION OF NEARLY 1.37B TONS - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has set a coal production target of nearly 1.37 billion metric tons for 2023, according to a government ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Rumor has it that the New Year has come, to set the pace in, for Russia to continue hostilities against Ukraine. Ten months on the go, into Russia& ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
INDONESIA IS ACCOUNTING FOR 32.3% OF THE GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL MARKET IN 2022 - BENCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, Benchero ...
Tuesday, 10 January 23
INDONESIAN HBA IS SEEING A SPIKE IN JANUARY 2023 INSTEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT FALL IN DECEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up 8.43% in January 2023.
HBA is seeing a dramatic spike in January 2023 i ...
Sunday, 08 January 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS SHOULD BE COMPENSATED FOR 2022 FORCED GENERATION – REGULATOR : REUTERS
Indian power plants that rely on imported coal should be fully compensated when forced to supply electricity, the country’s power regulator s ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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