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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Saturday, 18 February 23
PAKISTAN PLANS TO QUADRUPLE DOMESTIC COAL-FIRED POWER, MOVE AWAY FROM GAS - REUTERS
Pakistan plans to quadruple its domestic coal-fired capacity to reduce power generation costs and will not build new gas-fired plants in the coming ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
2023 MARINE FUEL MARKET PREDICTIONS - JOHN BERGMAN, AURAMARINE
The drive for decarbonisation we witnessed in 2022 has continued into 2023, demonstrating the shipping’s industry positive strides in the fas ...
Saturday, 28 January 23
COAL GROWTH BLIP NOT TO BE REPEATED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As 2022 drew to a close, global coal demand looked set to end the year just 1.2% up on the previous year. But that small increase was enough to pus ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT INCREASES IN DECEMBER 2022 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in December 2022, official data showed.
The country produced 400 million tonne ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
COKING COAL NARROWS THE GAP ON THERMAL AS CHINA REOPENS - REUTERS
The premium of high-grade thermal coal over coking coal in Asia is shrinking as China’s re-opening and ending of a ban on imports from Austra ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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