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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Sunday, 08 January 23
ELEVATED COAL PRICE A DRAG ON MARGINS OF DOMESTIC BASE METAL PLAYERS: ICRA
The increased price of coal continue to be a drag on the margin of domestic base metal players with no immediate relief in sight, rating agency ICR ...
Monday, 02 January 23
CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK BY 2035: REPORT - REUTERS
China’s primary energy consumption is likely to peak at nearly 6.03 billion tonnes of standard coal between 2030 and 2035, refining giant Chi ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND LIKELY TO PEAK BETWEEN 2030-2035: MINISTER - ANI
The demand for coal in India will continue and is likely to peak between 2030-2035, Union Minister of Coal, Mines, and Parliamentary Affairs Pralha ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
RIO TINTO AND PARTNERS COULD RECEIVE AS MUCH AS $450M IN GOVERNMENT COMPENSATION FOR COAL PRICE CAP - THE GUARDIAN
Compensation payments for the Gladstone power plant remain the sticking point in the federal government’s coal price cap compensation negotia ...
Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade wou ...
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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