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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Thursday, 26 January 23
AUSTRALIA'S CORONADO GLOBAL SEES COAL PRICES RISING ON RESUMING CHINA IMPORTS - REUTERS
Australia’s Coronado Global Resources said on Tuesday resuming metallurgical coal imports to China would likely push sea-borne coal prices hi ...
Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S MAJOR COAL-PRODUCING PROVINCE ACCELERATES DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION - XINHUA
At Chindata Group’s big-data industrial park in Lingqiu County of Datong City, hundreds of thousands of servers are running round-the-clock t ...
Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE SEES COAL PRODUCTION INCREASE IN 2022 - XINHUA
North China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi saw its coal production hit 1.31 billion tonnes in 2022, up 8.7 percent year on year, local author ...
Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
FRAUD IS THE BIGGEST THREAT TO CARGO LOSSES - TT CLUB
The almost exclusive use of online facilities to process business transactions allows a myriad of fraudulent pursuits to find opportunities within ...
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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