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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Thursday, 22 December 22
RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS CRATER BY 54% IN THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE EU'S EMBARGO AMID A SHORTAGE OF TANKERS WILLING TO CARRY CARGOES - BUSINESS INSIDER
Since the European Union imposed its seaborne crude sanctions, Russian oil exports have tumbled by more than half, according to data compiled by Bl ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
CHINA TIGHTENS VERIFICATION OF SHIPS’ ENERGY CONSUMPTION DATA - GARD
From 22 December 2022, ships trading to Chinese ports must record their energy consumption data in accordance with the requirements of their Ship E ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
AN OVERVIEW OF THE LNG MARKET - VESSELSVALUE
LNG values have continued to strengthen, spurred by skyrocketing earnings that have surpassed last year’s record breaking peaks. In November, ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COKING COAL SLUMPS AS TALKS ON AUSTRALIA-CHINA TRADE RIFT LOOM - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures dropped more than 3 per cent on Tuesday (Dec 20), extending losses, as supply of the steelmaking input might increase i ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COAL AND GAS PRICE CAPS MAY COMPOUND POLITICAL RISK FOR AUSTRALIAN CORPORATES - FITCH RATINGS
Australia’s introduction of temporary price caps on domestic sales of gas and coal used for electricity generation will probably have limited ...
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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