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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 February 24
DRY BULK MARKET: THE DOWNWARD REVISION IN THE GROWTH OF CAPESIZE TONNE DAYS IN JANUARY WITH THE BCI DROPPING - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In the last week of January, the dry freight market sustained weakness in the Capesize segment, while the number of ballasters in the Southeast (SE ...
Friday, 02 February 24
COAL INDIA ACHIEVES NEARLY 80% OF ITS FY24 PRODUCTION TARGET IN TEN MONTHS - CNBCTV18
For the month of January, the company’s production grew by 9.1% from the same period last year to 78.4 Million Tonnes (MT), from 71.9 MT last ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
CHINA'S WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY TO OVERTAKE COAL IN 2024 - INDUSTRY BODY, REUTERS REPORTED
China’s installed wind and solar capacity is expected to overtake coal for the first time this year, according to industry forecasts.
&nb ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
ANTI-DEDUCTION CLAUSES: CAN A CHARTERER WITHHOLD HIRE WITHOUT AN OWNER'S CONSENT? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Summary
In The Anna Dorothea, the Court found that where a charterparty provides that no deduction from hire may be m ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
INDIA REBUILDS COAL STOCKS TO ENSURE ELECTRIC RELIABILITY - REUTERS
India’s electricity supply is much more comfortable at the start of 2024 than in either 2023 or 2022 as coal production has ramped up and the ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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