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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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