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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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