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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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