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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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