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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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