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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR 16.3% OF AUSTRALIA'S COAL EXPORTS, FOLLOWED BY INDIA 14.4% - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels says Banchero Costa in its latest report.
...
Wednesday, 12 June 24
LNG NEWBUILDING VALUES AT RECORD HIGH: 78 NEWBUILD ORDERS PLACED IN 2024, DOUBLING 2023 - VESON NAUTICAL
The number of LNG newbuilding orders have more than doubled from the same period last year where 34 orders were placed, compared to 78 in the first ...
Monday, 10 June 24
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS RISE 11% ON LOWER DOMESTIC OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s imports of coal rose 11% in May from a year earlier, customs data and Reuters records showed on Friday, as lower domestic output this ...
Tuesday, 04 June 24
HOW DO WESTERN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IMPACT THE GLOBAL METALS, MINING AND COAL MARKETS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The geopolitical landscape for Russia, as a major supplier of various commodities, has undergone a dramatic transformation since the invasion of Uk ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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