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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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