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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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