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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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